Wednesday, September 30th, 2026 — A combination of tropical moisture and a storm moving out of the West is bringing a significant flash-flood threat to parts of the Southwest, South Central states and Plains, with some locations facing several days of heavy rainfall through Friday.
Moisture from former East Pacific hurricanes Odalys and Polo is contributing to the event. Residual moisture from Odalys moved north into the Southwest early in the week, while moisture and energy associated with Polo are combining with a dip in the jet stream moving inland from the West Coast.
AccuWeather meteorologist Alex Duffus described the setup as a “triple threat combination” involving moisture from Odalys and Polo along with the approaching western trough. AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said the flash-flood danger in parts of New Mexico could be the most serious the state has faced in five years or longer.
Two areas could receive 4 to 8 inches of rain, according to AccuWeather, with higher totals possible where thunderstorms repeatedly cross the same locations or where terrain increases rainfall. AccuWeather placed its Local StormMax rainfall estimate at 18 inches. The most intense storms could produce rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour.
Those rates pose a particular problem in drought-stricken areas. Hard, compacted soils can absorb water poorly, allowing intense rainfall to run off quickly and increase the potential for flash flooding. Heavy rain could close roads, flood homes and businesses, push streams and rivers out of their banks and inundate late-summer crops that have not been harvested.
For property and catastrophe adjusters, the event could produce claims across a broad and shifting footprint rather than in a single concentrated impact zone. Flooded roads and changing areas of excessive rainfall could also complicate access to damaged properties and early inspections. The source does not provide insured-loss estimates or report specific property losses from this week's event so far.
By midweek, the heaviest rain is expected to shift from the Four Corners toward eastern Texas and the Plains. Severe thunderstorms are also possible Wednesday afternoon and night from southwestern Texas to northern Kansas, with damaging wind gusts generally in the 50-60 mph range in the strongest storms.
Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected to continue across the South Central states late in the week while rain expands toward the Midwest and Great Lakes. A separate storm could bring rain to parts of the Southeast and Northeast closer to the weekend, although the extent of any flooding there will depend on how that system develops.
