Rising Hurricane Risks Predicted for Florida This Year

As the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1 approaches, forecasters are warning of a particularly severe year ahead. This comes after nearly a year of the El Niño weather pattern, which has warmed the waters where hurricanes form and strengthen. Unfortunately, the protective wind patterns of El Niño are giving way to La Niña conditions, which are more conducive to hurricane development.

Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University, has highlighted a dire forecast for 2024, predicting 23 tropical cyclones, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes, significantly above average. There’s a 75% chance of a major hurricane making landfall in Florida, which hasn’t faced such a threat since Hurricane Andrew in 1992. Potential insured losses could reach $200 billion if a major storm hits South Florida.

Adding to the concern, severe weather events continue to wreak havoc across North America. Canada has seen a sharp rise in catastrophic claims, while severe convective storms in the U.S. have caused significant insured losses. Rising sea levels along the U.S. southern coast further exacerbate the risk.

Despite the grim outlook, there are glimmers of hope. Insurance companies in South Florida are using premium increases to incentivize property owners to retrofit their homes for better storm resilience, aided by state assistance programs. This proactive approach may offer a pathway to greater resilience in the face of increasing climate threats.