Rising Ocean Temps to Drive Massive Insured Losses From Cat 5 Hurricanes in Florida, East Coast

A new study published in the Journal of Catastrophe Risk and Resilience warns that insured losses from Atlantic hurricanes could rise dramatically as ocean temperatures climb. Although the 2025 hurricane season spared the U.S. from direct hits, researchers say this was pure luck—not a sign of long-term trends. Hurricanes that did form, like Category 5 Hurricane Melissa, are becoming stronger and more destructive due to rapid intensification fueled by warmer waters.

For insurance claims adjusters, particularly in high-risk states like Florida, the Carolinas, New York, and New England, the findings are critical. Florida could see insured hurricane losses increase by 44% under a 2°C warming scenario, while New York may face a 64% surge. The Northeast, once considered relatively safe, is increasingly exposed as storms retain strength further north.

The implications for claims professionals are profound: faster storm escalation means less prep time for communities and insurers, greater exposure in historically low-claim regions, and more complex post-event assessments. Adjusters will need to adapt to changing catastrophe models, faster mobilization demands, and expanded risk zones as the climate shifts.