Tropical Depression Two continues to organize in the Gulf of Mexico and is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to strengthen into Tropical Storm Bertha. The system is located south of Panama City, Florida, with sustained winds of 35 mph and is expected to move near or along the northern Gulf Coast over the next several days.
Storm surge watches are in effect from the Alabama-Florida border west to the mouth of the Mississippi River. Tropical storm watches extend from the Ochlockonee River in Florida westward to the Jefferson-Plaquemines Parish line in Louisiana. Forecasters expect tropical storm conditions to develop in parts of the watch area beginning late Monday.
The greatest concern for insurers and claims professionals may be the prolonged rainfall forecast. Much of the Gulf Coast from western Florida to the middle Texas coast is expected to receive 2 to 4 inches of rain through Friday, with isolated totals reaching 8 inches. Flash flooding, urban flooding, and localized river flooding could produce both residential and commercial property claims, even in areas that avoid the strongest winds.
Claims organizations should closely monitor forecast updates and begin staging catastrophe resources where appropriate. Adjusters may see an increase in water damage, wind damage, fallen trees, business interruption, and flood-related claims if the system strengthens as forecast. The storm also serves as an early reminder that slow-moving tropical systems can generate significant claim volume through rainfall and storm surge, even without reaching hurricane strength.
