U.S. Wildfire Frequency and Severity at 20-Year Low Despite Global Rise, Says Triple I Report

Despite global increases in wildfires, the U.S. is experiencing its lowest wildfire frequency and severity in two decades, as reported by the Insurance Information Institute (Triple I). This decline is attributed to effective mitigation strategies and climate conditions, although risks for the insurance industry remain high due to developed-land trends and the wildland-urban interface (WUI).

Wildfire Trends:

The U.S., including states like California and Texas, has seen a decrease in wildfire occurrences in 2023.
A National Interagency Fire Center report indicated that human-caused fires were more frequent but less destructive than lightning-caused fires.
Data from 2000-2023 shows a steady decrease in wildfire frequency but irregular trends in acres burned.
Reasons for the Decline:

State and local mitigation efforts, along with federal investments like the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021, have contributed to this downward trend.
The Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety’s Wildfire Prepared Home designation program and weatherization assistance programs are also significant factors.
Implications for Insurance and Risk:

The insurance industry faces continued high risks due to the increasing number of homes in the WUI and rising average temperatures.
Despite recent declines, insurance premiums remain high, reflecting market forces and risk changes.
In California, the disparity between northern and southern regions in wildfire frequency and severity is noted, influenced by WUI development patterns.
California’s Response:

California’s Proposition 103, focusing on historical data for rate setting, may need updating to consider modern wildfire risk assessments.
Encouraging insurers to offer premium discounts for fire mitigation could benefit both the industry and property owners.
Overall, the Triple I report highlights the effectiveness of current wildfire mitigation efforts in the U.S. but stresses the importance of continued vigilance and adaptation in risk management and insurance practices, especially considering the dynamic nature of wildfire risks.