What the NCCI AIS 2025 Revealed About the Future of Workers Compensation

At the 2025 NCCI Annual Insights Symposium (AIS), insurance professionals gathered to assess the current health and future direction of the U.S. workers compensation system. Amid ongoing economic uncertainty and shifting labor trends, industry experts emphasized the balance between data-driven analytics and employee care as central to system effectiveness. NCCI President Tracy Ryan opened the event by underscoring how technological and economic challenges make data an increasingly vital asset in protecting workers and controlling costs.

Despite a 3.2% drop in net written premium and rising medical severity, NCCI Chief Actuary Donna Glenn confirmed that workers comp remains financially robust, with a strong 2024 combined ratio of 86 and industry reserves showing a $16 billion surplus. Lost-time claim frequency declined faster than the long-term average, yet both medical and indemnity claim severity rose 6%, pointing to shifts in claim dynamics. Economic headwinds like GDP contraction and potential stagflation, discussed by NCCI economist Stephen Cooper, may test the system’s resilience.

Industry-specific insights showed varying claim trends across sectors. While remote work continues to drive down office injury frequency, rising violence in private education is causing a spike in ‘struck by’ incidents. Automation may be easing injuries in restaurants, and healthcare has seen a sharp drop in strain-related injuries since 2015.

Emerging risks—particularly in medical utilization, motor vehicle accidents, and pain management—are reshaping cost structures and treatment approaches. Advances like additive utilization metrics, reduced opioid reliance, and vehicle safety tech are helping carriers and employers manage risk more effectively. With overall claim frequency down but certain sectors still challenged, the path ahead will require close monitoring of both macroeconomic factors and granular, industry-level trends.