Why Space Debris May Be the Next Uninsurable Global Threat

A recent emergency rescue mission by China’s space program highlights the growing danger of space debris. Astronauts aboard the Tiangong station were forced to return via a separate capsule after discovering that the Shenzhou-20’s window had been pierced by a piece of debris smaller than a millimeter. Despite the fragment’s size, its impact at orbital speeds was powerful enough to penetrate multiple layers of reinforced glass, making re-entry too risky.

This event is not an outlier. Orbit is becoming increasingly crowded with debris from satellites, rocket stages, and past collisions, with more than 140 million objects under 1cm zipping around Earth at speeds exceeding 17,000 mph. Each of these fragments has the potential to disable billion-dollar satellites, endanger human lives, or create cascades of further debris through high-speed impacts.

For insurance professionals, this raises urgent questions about coverage viability and attribution. There’s no international agreement on liability for space debris, and no reliable framework for determining fault when damage occurs. The geopolitical sensitivity around military and intelligence satellites further complicates transparency and cooperation, making risk assessments more speculative than scientific.

Current space treaties are outdated, and mitigation standards are mostly voluntary. Solutions like harpoons, nets, or laser-based "brooms" are still theoretical or in early testing. Meanwhile, every new satellite launch — whether from a government or a private company — adds to the orbital load.

In the absence of enforceable standards or proven remediation tools, space debris is quickly becoming a rare but catastrophic peril that may be difficult, if not impossible, to underwrite. The implications ripple out to industries relying on satellite networks for weather data, logistics, agriculture, and communications. As commercial reliance on space grows, so too will the pressure on insurers and adjusters to manage an unbounded and potentially uninsurable threat.