Winter Storm Fern Losses Could Reach $4B, Verisk Estimates

estimates insured industry losses from Winter Storm Fern could reach $4 billion, with property and auto claims largely driven by freeze-related damage. Early results from Verisk’s updated U.S. Winter Storm Model suggest at least 14 states from Texas to Massachusetts may each exceed $50 million in insured losses, signaling sustained claims pressure across multiple regions.

For adjusters, the loss picture is complicated by varied regional impacts. Freezing rain caused widespread power outages across Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia, increasing exposure to burst pipes and interior water damage. In parts of eastern Texas through Kentucky, ice accumulations approaching one inch raised the likelihood of prolonged freeze claims, while cold temperatures slowed mitigation and repair timelines in the Midwest and Northeast.

Heavy snowfall exceeding one foot in states including New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Massachusetts adds roof load, collapse, and access challenges for inspections. At the same time, severe thunderstorms in southern Alabama and Georgia produced high winds and tornado touchdowns, blending winter storm claims with wind and convective loss handling.

If Verisk’s estimates hold, Fern would rank as the third costliest U.S. winter storm on record, trailing Winter Storm Uri in 2021 and Winter Storm Elliott in 2022. Other modelers show a wide loss range. Karen Clark and Company projects privately insured losses at $6.7 billion, while Aon and BMS estimates are lower. For claims leaders, these differences underscore the importance of early triage, reserve monitoring, and clear communication as loss development continues.