Developing System in Caribbean Could Become Tropical Storm Melissa

A developing tropical system in the eastern Caribbean Sea, known as Invest 98L, is drawing attention from the National Hurricane Center with a high probability of becoming Tropical Storm Melissa—the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Moving west at 15 to 20 mph, the disturbance is producing concentrated thunderstorm activity and is expected to encounter favorable environmental conditions for further development. As of Monday morning, forecasters projected an 80% chance of formation within the next seven days.

While the Windward and Leeward Islands are already seeing a decline in rainfall and winds, future impacts could affect the ABC Islands as the system continues to track westward. Long-range forecast models remain divided on the exact trajectory, but the prevailing guidance suggests a potential northward shift through the Greater Antilles into the western Atlantic, keeping the system currently away from the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Claims professionals should monitor the system’s path closely, especially given its possible upgrade to hurricane status. Even in the absence of a direct U.S. landfall, systems like these can cause regional disruptions, trigger pre-landfall coverage questions, or prompt reinsurance readiness assessments. Key concerns include travel delays, early damage to Caribbean infrastructure, and potential secondary effects if the system enters more populated or vulnerable zones later in its development.