A new Moody’s analysis highlights the scale of uninsured flood exposure facing homeowners, insurers, and government entities across the United States. Using Moody’s RMS flood models, researchers estimated that residential uninsured flood losses could reach approximately $375 billion under a 1-in-100-year flood scenario and surpass $1 trillion during a more severe 1-in-500-year event. The report found that flood insurance protection gaps remain high nationwide, with roughly 65% of losses uninsured in the 1-in-100-year scenario and more than 70% uninsured in the more extreme scenario.
For claims adjusters, one of the most important findings is that flood risk extends well beyond FEMA-designated Special Flood Hazard Areas. Moody’s argues that precipitation-driven flooding, storm surge, and local drainage issues create significant exposure outside traditional regulatory flood zones. This means adjusters may continue to see substantial flood-related damage claims and uninsured losses in areas where property owners did not believe they faced meaningful flood risk.
The report also points to low flood insurance take-up rates nationwide, even in high-risk coastal regions. While private flood insurance has grown in recent years, the National Flood Insurance Program remains the dominant source of residential flood coverage. The result is a large protection gap that often shifts recovery costs to homeowners, local governments, federal disaster aid programs, and other stakeholders after major flood events.
Moody’s uses Hurricane Helene’s 2024 impacts in Asheville, North Carolina, as a case study illustrating how rainfall and flooding can exceed historical expectations. The report notes that flood insurance penetration remained low despite elevated risk, leaving a large share of losses uninsured. For catastrophe claims professionals, the event demonstrates how extreme rainfall events can create significant recovery challenges even in locations not traditionally viewed as major flood-risk markets.
Looking ahead, Moody’s estimates that an intermediate-emissions climate scenario could increase uninsured flood losses by roughly 25% by 2050. The findings reinforce the importance of catastrophe preparedness, flood modeling, mitigation investments, policyholder education, and accurate risk assessment as insurers and adjusters confront increasingly complex flood exposures across both coastal and inland regions.
